Prepared by: Jacqueline Bell - Professor of Law at the University of Melbourne
The Brazilian city of Belém, located in the heart of the Amazon, is preparing to host the United Nations Climate Conference (COP30), amid international concern and uncertainty about the outcome of this pivotal summit.
This year's summit comes against a backdrop of unprecedented challenges. In the United States, President Donald Trump's administration has reneged on the Paris Climate Agreement and canceled several renewable energy projects, a move that has caused major geopolitical upheaval and weakened international efforts to address climate change.
Meanwhile, last year saw average global warming exceed 1.5°C for the first time, and devastating climate disasters such as fires, floods and heatwaves are on the rise on most continents.
A smaller summit. but more symbolic
The summit has been repeatedly criticized for becoming more of a "mega-event" than an effective forum for environmental policymaking. Belem is expected to be smaller than its predecessors, not as a deliberate dilution, but because logistical constraints and high accommodation costs in the Amazonian city may prevent poorer countries from fully participating.
By hosting the summit in the Amazon, Brazilian President Lula da Silva wanted to highlight the importance of tropical forests as the "lungs of the earth" and a massive carbon store.
Climate Finance: "Show the Money"
Climate finance remains the most prominent issue at every climate summit. For years, poor countries have been demanding increased financial contributions from the rich countries that bear the brunt of environmental destruction.
At last year's Baku summit (COP29), a new target of raising $300 billion a year by 2035 was agreed upon, with public and private investments reaching $1.3 trillion in the same period. But with Washington pulling out and the EU dithering, all eyes are on China to fill the climate leadership vacuum.
Brazil also plans to launch a new initiative, the Tropical Forest Forever Fund, to encourage countries to protect forests in exchange for financial compensation, 20% of which is earmarked for indigenous communities.
Pledges 2035: Ambitions are lower than expected
Countries were supposed to make new pledges to cut emissions until 2035, but most have been delayed or fall short of ambitions. It is estimated that only half of global emissions are covered by clear pledges, meaning the emissions gap remains large.
However, UN reports show that emissions are slowly starting to decline, albeit much slower than needed to meet the Paris Agreement targets.
Judiciary enters the climate line
With some governments reneging on their commitments, international courts are increasingly playing a role in enforcing accountability. This year, the International Court of Justice issued a strong advisory opinion emphasizing that states have a legal obligation to address carbon emissions, and that failure to take appropriate action may constitute a "violation of international law."
Will Australia host the 2026 summit?
Also on the table in Belem is the issue of hosting next year's summit (COP31). Australia and Turkey are competing to host, and the Australian bid has received broad support from Pacific nations. But if no consensus can be reached, it will revert to the German city of Bonn, home of the UN climate secretariat.
Conclusion
Despite all the setbacks, global climate conferences remain the only framework capable of coordinating international efforts to confront the global warming crisis. Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the world needs a "new burst of political will" to save the planet from further climate disasters.
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